非平稳条件下基于贝叶斯网络的内涝风险评估和管理方法

受非平稳条件因素(如气候变化、城市化)的影响,近几年内涝灾害频发。以Z市某地块为研究区域,借助地理信息系统(ArcGIS)和暴雨雨洪管理模型(SWMM)实现研究区排水管网的水动力模拟。在不同降雨情境下,比较分析现状系统及不同改造方案下的系统溢流量等信息,计算内涝风险指数。采用贝叶斯网络分析工具(Bayes Server)对引发内涝风险的主要因素进行推理、识别和分析,进而构建内涝风险评估模型。该模型便于决策者根据设计需求,结合各因素的不确定性范围和发生概率值,综合选取最适合的改造措施,优化市政排水防涝规划,为市政基础设施建设提供了依据。     

Probabilistic seismic damage assessment of reinforced concrete buildings considering directionality effects

Most of buildings and structures are usually projected according to two main axes. However, the geographical position of these buildings varies randomly. Such random distributions of the azimuthal positions of structures, in most of the cities, generally, are not accounted for when assessing their seismic risk; certainly, the direction of the seismic loads is another highly random variable. Moreover, an additional important source of uncertainty is related to the structural response, mainly due to the random character of the mechanical properties. There is a consensus that uncertainties must be considered for adequately assessing the seismic risk of structures, but these directionality effects have not been deeply explored so far. In this article, the influence of the high uncertainty involved in these input variables on the expected seismic damage is analysed. Thus, an actual earthquake, which affected the southern part of Spain, is studied. Notably, damages on a group of affected buildings, located close to the epicentre, are analysed and discussed in detail. The results show that the influence of the random azimuthal position of structures is an important source of uncertainty and that it should be taken into account when estimating the expected seismic risk in urban areas.     

Health risk assessment of chlorpyrifos inhalation exposure among chilli-growing farmers in Na-Krasaeng Sub-District,Det Udom District,Ubon Ratchathani Province,Thailand

The paper reports a health risk assessment of pesticide exposure among chilli-growing farmers living in Na-Krasaeng Sub-District, Det Udom District, Ubon Ratchathani Province, Thailand. Personal air samples were collected from 46 participants spraying pesticide. These samples were analysed to investigate the farmers’ exposure by inhalation of the organophosphate, chlorpyrifos, which is the predominant pesticide used in the study area. The potential health risk of the farmers through inhalation was estimated by calculating the Hazard Quotient (HQ). The results showed that chlorpyrifos concentrations in inhaled air samples from the farmers ranged from less than the limit of detection, <LOD, to 0.041 mg/m3 with an average of 0.0072 mg/m3. Average daily doses (ADD) of exposure were calculated to be in the range 0–0.007 mg/kg/day with a mean value of 0.0014 mg/kg/day. The estimated risk quotient was 0 to 2.35 and the mean value was 0.84. Accordingly, the chilli-growing farmers were not considered to be a population at risk (mean value of HQ ≤ 1). But, the estimated risk of 17.38% of the study population was higher than the acceptable level (HQ > 1). This indicated that some participants were considered as an individual risk which should be of concern.     

Sustainable disassembly line balancing model based on triple bottom line

End of life (EOL) phase of a product is receiving more attention due to increase in environmental concerns, and many studies have been conducted for value creation in EOL, focusing on concepts as remanufacturing, reuse and recycling in sustainable production manner. This study especially focuses on one of global problem, e-waste. To minimise the amount of wastes and maximise recovered materials from EOL, disassembly is one of the most important concept, associated with reuse, and balancing disassembly line in an optimal way is essential for organisations. In disassembly line balancing (DLB), not only precedence of tasks, but also risk criteria related to environment and human safety should be considered for sustainability. The aim of this study is to propose a model based on triple bottom line (TBL) dimensions, i.e. human safety, environmental safety and business criteria. To achieve sustainability in DLB, and for risk assessment in sustainable DLB, it had been decided to use a multi-criteria method, i.e. TODIM, acronym in Portuguese of ‘Tomada de Decisão Iterativa Multicritério’. The proposed model included 22 disassembly criteria categorised under TBL dimensions, which are derived from the literature. Implementation of the study was conducted for computer disassembly processes, and as a result of the study approximately 12% an improvement in cycle time was succeeded. In the long run, the integration of sustainability in disassembly operations may contribute to the competitive advantage of the company in terms of differentiation and corporate image by achieving business, environment and human targets simultaneously.     

基于模糊评价理论对层燃工业锅炉综合性能的研究与分析

为有效地平衡锅炉效率与排放之间的关系,通过分析锅炉的能效指标,建立了结合效率因素、燃料管理因素和环境因素等的能效评价指标体系。采用组合赋权法确定权重,建立了锅炉系统模糊综合评价模型,并利用该模型对山西大同某层燃蒸汽锅炉进行了综合能效评价与分析。结果表明:锅炉的综合评级得分为0.59,燃料设备因素指标得分仅为0.19。该锅炉热效率虽然达到了设计要求,但锅炉飞灰含碳量偏大,同时过量空气系数为2.34,远大于设计标准1.65。综合分析其原因是漏风过大,该分析结果与现场热力测试实验数据相符合。     

压水堆堆芯损伤评价系统研究与开发

堆芯损伤评价是反应堆事故后应急评价的重要组成部分。本文在国外文献基础上,结合国内的运行经验,对压水堆堆芯损伤评价进行研究,并开发了相应的软件程序。堆芯损伤评价包括基于堆芯裸露时间、在线监测仪表读数和取样分析数据三种方法。考虑应急实时要求、电厂实际情况与国际经验,本文采用了基于在线监测仪表读数的评价方法,该方法主要是基于堆芯热电偶读数与安全壳辐射监测仪表读数进行评价,其他监测仪表读数进行辅助合理性证实。     

第七届世界军人运动会核与辐射风险评估与控制

武汉市涉核单位众多,存在一定的核与辐射事故风险。通过对武汉市举办第七届世界军人运动会可能存在的核与辐射风险因素进行识别及评价,确定可能发生的12类核与辐射事故类型及风险水平,进而有针对性的制定风险防控措施,做到辐射应急管理关口前移,在保证军运会期间核技术利用单位正常生产活动的基础上有效的保障了核与辐射安全。     

镓锗铜萃余液综合利用研究与应用

本文针对镓锗铜综合回收系统产出的萃余液,设计通过中和氧化除杂、锌粉置换除铜镉、有机试剂除钴镍、纯碱法生产碱式碳酸锌、高温煅烧生产活性氧化锌和一步法生产元明粉的生产工艺流程,有效的将镓锗铜萃余液分类分离富集,产出具有价值的富集渣和工业产品,进一步提升综合回收经济效益。